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"The Fed is the central bank most able to chart its own course," Citi economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a client note Wednesday. It was the first time the Riksbank had cut since 2016 and takes its main policy rate down to 3.75%. The Riksbank's move was the second central bank cut of the year, as the Swiss National Bank reduced its key rate a quarter point in March in what was seen as a surprise action. Reductions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank are expected to come next, possibly within a month. "With the exception of Japan, developed markets are embarking on a program of rate cuts," Hollenhorst said.
Persons: Andrew Hollenhorst, BOE, Mark, Bailey, Citi's Hollenhorst, Christine Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Lagarde, Hollenhorst Organizations: U.S . Federal, Citigroup, Citi, Sweden's, Swiss National Bank, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan
Three months of inflation data have brought those expectations back down to earth. "Not that you've put a pin in inflation getting to the Fed's target, but it's not happening imminently." The 2-year Treasury note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, jumped to 4.93%, an increase of nearly 0.2 percentage point. The pricing in of seven rate cuts earlier this year was completely at odds with indications from Fed officials. However, when policymakers in December raised their "dot plot" indicator to three rate cuts from two projected in September, it set off a Wall Street frenzy.
Persons: Michael M, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, you've, There's, Today's, Phillip Neuhart, Joseph LaVorgna, Schwab's Sonders, Sonders Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Federal, Labor, CPI, Fed, Traders, First, Bank Wealth, Dow Jones, Treasury, Nikko Securities, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City
Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly. "Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run." The speech, to the Shadow Open Market Committee, comes with markets on edge about the near-term future of Fed policy. Weighing inflation risks, she said that supply-side improvements that helped bring numbers down this year may not have the same impact going forward. Fed officials will get their next look at inflation data Wednesday, when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index report.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, of Governors, Market, Committee, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York
Core services costs excluding housing services — "supercore" inflation, as it has become known — remain elevated but at least the pace of increase, at 0.5%, has eased. "The 'last mile' problem for the central bank is the inflation in service prices, which is partly attributed to the tight labor market in sectors such as healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and construction. "This type of inflation, often termed 'cost-push inflation,' may not react straightforwardly to changes in interest rates." "Wage growth was significantly slower, the labor market wasn't as tight," PNC's Faucher said. "It wasn't that long ago, but it was a different economy than it is now, with some of those [current] post-pandemic effects of the tight housing market and the tight labor market."
Persons: Gus Faucher, Dow Jones, Sung Won Sohn, PNC's Faucher, Faucher, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, That's Organizations: Federal, PNC Financial Services, CPI, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Loyola Marymount University, SS Economics, Fed, JPMorgan, Monday
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 29, 2024. U.S. stock futures fell slightly Sunday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out its worst week since October. Investors are also looking ahead to inflation data due out later this week. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.17% and 0.38%, respectively. The 30-stock Dow slid 0.93% last week, marking its worst performance since October.
Persons: Dow, , Mike Dickson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Investors, Nvidia, Meta, Federal, Traders, Fed, Horizon Investments, Oracle Locations: New York City, U.S
As a kid I was dazzled that Howard Johnson’s had 28 flavors of ice cream, including lemon stick and strawberry ripple. As an adult I am equally impressed by the number of flavors of inflation. There are dozens of ways to measure price changes, each serving a different purpose. The big news on Thursday was an increase in one particular flavor of inflation, the price index for core services excluding housing. In other words, the inflation you experience depends on the things you buy.
Persons: Howard Johnson’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Commerce Department Locations: U.S
A wave of inflationary signals means that the Federal Reserve's next move could be a rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said. His read on recent key inflation indicators in January, including a 3.1% year-over-year increase in the consumer price index and a 0.9% rise in the producer price index, formed the basis of his rationale. When it comes to identifying deflationary trends in shelter prices, Summers noted that many economists tend to focus solely on rental markets. AdvertisementSummers noted that the Fed isn't going to want to let up too soon and risk cutting rates while inflation is still a problem. The disease tends to come back and it tends to be harder to go after the second time."
Persons: Larry Summers, Summers, there's Organizations: Federal, Bloomberg, Business
Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called “core” inflation could look stickier. Core inflation is watched closely because it typically provides a better read of where inflation is likely headed. One factor that probably kept core prices up last month is that January is when many businesses impose price increases. While the government seeks to adjust its inflation data for such seasonal factors, it doesn't always do so perfectly. Core services prices, which exclude energy, jumped 5.3% last year.
Persons: Biden, Joe Biden, , doesn't, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Fed
JPMorgan traders expect the S & P 500 could rise 0.5% to 1%. The S & P 500 may gain 1% to 1.5% here. In this scenario, JPMorgan traders anticipate a 1% to 1.5% decline in the S & P 500. The S & P 500 could rally 2% to 2.25%. Traders expect the S & P 500 could lose 1.75% to 2.25% in this scenario.
Persons: Dow Jones, disinflation, Jerome Powell's, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CPI, Investors, Reserve, JPMorgan, Traders Locations: U.S
The most common measure of inflation, the CPI is expected to have fallen to 2.9% annually from 3.4% while the core CPI, excluding food and energy costs, is forecast to have declined to a 3.7% rate from 3.9% in December. Year-end revisions to 2023 CPI data, released last Friday, showed inflation was actually slightly lower on a monthly basis in December than earlier estimated. “But ‘generally’ doesn’t necessarily mean linear or consistent – there could very well be bumps ahead.”“Core inflation today is being primarily driven by shelter and wage-sensitive core services,” Lin added. Headier growth could mean prices will take longer to revert back to the 2% annual inflation target set by the Federal Reserve. The day also brings the first reading on consumer sentiment for February from the University of Michigan’s key index.
Persons: , BeiChen Lin, ” Lin, Jerome Powell, David Andolfatto, Louis, , Bill Adams, Waran Organizations: Russell Investments, Economic, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Federal Reserve, Research, Miami Herbert Business School, University of Miami, Federal Reserve Bank of St, University of, Comerica Bank, Locations: U.S
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Persons: , It's, TikTok, it's, ByteDance, TikTok Eng, Tiktok Organizations: Service, Business, US, of Foreign Labor, Live, US Data Security, Security, US Department of Labor, Corporate, Employees, TikTok, Tech, Commerce, Marketing, Staff, Trust, Safety, Brand, Android Software, Computer, Global Agency Relations, Global Security Technology, Infrastructure Engineering, Android, Machine, Interactive, Systems, Data Systems, Engineer, Commerce Data Intelligence, Commerce Logistics, Chain, Logistics, Media, US Tech Services, Big, Business Intelligence, Protection, Network Security, Business Systems, Cash, Cloud, Networking Software, Public, Tech Service, Technology, Technology Systems, Infrastructure, Network Business, NA, Defense, US Tech Service, Analytics, Research, Mining, Solutions, Tech Services, Pico, Forensics, Development, Control, Financial, CRM, Global, Learning, Traffic, TCMS, Communications, Graphics, Monetization Technology, Management, Products, Resources, IDC Logistics, DevOps, IOS, GNE Global, Software, Procurement, Commerce Global, Strategic, Global Business, Merchant, Mobile Security, Mobile Software, Multimedia Research, Regional, Sound Engineering, Professional Services, Community, Relations, Real, Commerce Trading, Creative, Enterprise, Virtual Network, Storage, Data Security, Smart, Finance, ML Systems, Cloud Infrastructure, TikTok US Tech Services, Monetization Tech, Learning Systems, Core Services, Core Service, Data Mining, Engineering, Commerce Engineering, Mobile, Revenue Management Locations: ByteDance, TikTok, TikTok Commerce, America, Mexico, Americas, Commerce
Economists were expecting the annual overall inflation rate to tick higher, to 3.2% from the 3.1% headline reading the month before, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Despite the acceleration, the annual rate of consumer-level inflation is down considerably from December 2022’s rate of 6.5%; additionally, a closely watched measure of underlying inflation slowed further. In December, core goods prices were flat, an apparent stalling out after six months of declines. Rising shelter costs have kept core services elevated. The central bank has a target inflation rate of 2%, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which has its latest reading due out later this month.
Persons: , ” Wendy Edelberg, ” “, , Brian Coulton, Fitch, ” Scott Anderson, Jerome Powell, Joe Brusuelas, Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, BLS, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Federal, BMO, CPI, PCE, RSM Locations: New York, November’s
For decades, cities have duked it out for titles like "best city for business" or "healthiest city in America," but now they're starting to compete for a new title: best place to ride out dystopia. While Sun Belt cities are working to mitigate these challenges, the increased risks also create an opportunity for once forgotten cities. The declaration has been followed up with investments in key areas — climate resilience was one of the four pillars that made up the city's four-year strategic plan released at the start of 2023. And the cities that could become climate havens have their weather downsides — Buffalo will still have some harsh winters, too. If Buffalo, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and other cities succeed in their climate-resilience agendas, they will grow, attracting residents from more at-risk areas of the country.
Persons: Tesla, Byron Brown, Redfin, Matthew E, Kahn Organizations: Los Angeles, Fortune, Sun, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, Association of Environmental, Federal Emergency Management Agency, FBI, Street Foundation, Pittsburgh, The New York Times, University of Southern, Hoover Institution Locations: America, West, Midwest, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, Buffalo , New York, Detroit, USA, Florida, California, South, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Phoenix, Angeles County, Miami, Dade County, Lake Erie, Buffalo, Duluth , Minnesota, Grand Rapids , Michigan, Chicago, Northern, Pittsburgh, Rust, Los Angeles, University of Southern California
The so-called core CPI was also lifted by a 3.7% rise in the cost of lodging away from home, which ended three straight monthly declines. The core CPI gained 4.1% on a year-on-year basis in September, the smallest rise since September 2021, after advancing 4.3% in August. Over the last three months, the core CPI increased 3.1%. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market tightness, which is driving core services inflation excluding rents, imply that the higher rates could last for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.
Persons: Olu Sonola, Stephen Juneau, Bing Guan, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, Bank of America Securities, Mobil, REUTERS, Fed, Financial, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California
Gasoline prices rose 2.1% after accelerating 10.6% in August. Year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Reuters GraphicsExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, matching August's gain. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market resilience, suggests borrowing costs could remain elevated for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.
Persons: Bing Guan, Olu Sonola, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Mobil, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York
The so-called core PPI increased 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in September after climbing 2.9% in August. Wholesale goods prices increased 0.9%, with a 3.3% rise in the cost of energy products accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core goods prices edged up 0.1% for the second straight month. This mostly reflected the normalization of supply chains, whose disruption fueled goods inflation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Though core inflation is cooling, higher gasoline and food prices could hamper progress by raising the cost of other goods as well as causing consumers to expect inflation to rise.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Christopher Rupkey, Will Compernolle, Alex McGrath, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters, PPI, Reuters Graphics, Trade, Fed, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, WASHINGTON, New York, East, Greenville , South Carolina
"This would be the Goldilocks Scenario," JPMorgan wrote. This could lead to the S & P 500 rallying between 1% and 1.5%. This outcome could pull the S & P 500 down in a range of 1.5% to 2%. "Another tail-risk outcome where some of the most interesting moves could come from the bond market," JPMorgan wrote. JPMorgan expects the S & P 500 to jump 1.5% to 2%.
Persons: Dow Jones, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, CPI Locations: U.S
LONDON, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Britain's finance ministry, which is seeking to boost competition in the banking sector, on Thursday proposed legislation to ease rules that require banks to "ring-fence" their retail arms with a cushion of capital. The draft legislation proposes to increase the threshold at which ring-fencing applies to banks from 25 billion pounds ($30.31 billion) to 35 billion pounds. Britain introduced the ring-fencing rule in January 2019 following the costly taxpayer bail-outs of banks during the global financial crisis over a decade ago. "It will improve outcomes for banks and their customers, increase competition and improve the competitiveness of the UK banking sector," Griffith said. Another change would allow ring-fenced banks to set up entities outside Britain to compete with international and domestic banking groups.
Persons: Keith Skeoch, Andrew Griffith, Griffith, Banks, Huw Jones, William Schomberg Organizations: Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Britain
The Federal Reserve, as expected, left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday while raising forecasts for economic growth and lowering them for unemployment next year. “Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.”The central bank updated its forecasts for economic growth, unemployment and inflation. The GDPNow estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now pegging economic growth in the third quarter at 4.9%. But it would likely curb economic growth at a time when the Fed’s policies have restricted credit and other government stimulus is waning.
Persons: , ” Powell, , Powell, Andrew Patterson, Ruslan Lienkha, Victor Li, Jeff MacDonald, Joe Biden, Donald Trump Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, , Villanova University, Federal Reserve Bank of, GOP Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
"It's going to be a mixed picture, with headline inflation picking due to higher gasoline prices and core inflation remaining contained," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The Fed would be encouraged by the continued moderation trend in core inflation, but it's still too high." While that would mark the second straight month of a pick up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI is forecast to have increased by 4.3%. "Under our new forecast for CPI health insurance, we continue to expect core CPI and especially core services ex.
Persons: Sam Bullard, it's, Ronnie Walker, Goldman Sachs, James Knightley, Lucia Mutikani, Timothy Gardner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, U.S . Energy Information Administration, CPI, Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, ING, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S, I'm, New York
The consumer price index increased by 0.6% last month, the largest gain since June 2022. Gasoline prices, which jumped 10.6% after rising 0.2% in July, accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI last month. While that marked the second straight month of a pick-up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The so-called core CPI had increased 0.2% for two consecutive months. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI increased 4.3%.
Persons: bode, Phillip Neuhart, Chris Zaccarelli, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, First Citizens Bank, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Treasury, Independent, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina
The next rounds of cuts would come in January and April. But she added that the proposed cuts would be “a bigger lift” than earlier savings efforts. In a news release on Saturday, the mayor said there would be no layoffs as a result of his directive. And an infusion of federal and state funding could remove the need for cuts, he said, stating that “the die is not yet cast.”“We need Washington and Albany to finally do their part by paying their fair share,” he said. An estimated 10,000 migrants are arriving in New York each month, overwhelming the city’s homeless shelters, which now house more than 112,300 people.
Persons: Champeny, , Adams, Kathy Hochul, Biden Organizations: Management, Democrat Locations: Washington, Albany, New York
If housing cost pressures start to ease more in the coming months, as many economists expect, then the Federal Reserve is almost certainly done. Headline annual consumer price inflation rose a little less than expected last month to 3.2%, and annual core inflation cooled slightly to 4.7%, as forecast. Reuters ImageReuters ImageShelter inflation is running at a 7.7% annual rate and has been far stickier than policymakers would have liked. But Parsons reckons lag effects will soon be bringing shelter inflation down more quickly. Reuters ImageReuters ImageReuters Image(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Jay Parsons, Parsons, Jerome Powell's, Phil Suttle, Julia Coronado, Andreas Steno Larsen, Powell, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Traders, Reuters, CPI, Suttle, Steno Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, ORLANDO, Florida, materializing
Daly: Premature to say if Fed has done enough on rates
  + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
"Whether we raise another time, or hold rates steady for a longer period -- those things are yet to be determined," Daly said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. "It would be premature to project what I think would happen because there's a lot of information coming in between now and our next meeting." While goods inflation is receding, and newly signed lease trends signal inflation from housing will also cool, core services inflation excluding housing has so far made little progress, Daly said. The Fed raised its policy a quarter of a percentage point last month, to a range of 5.25% to 5%, and policymakers will consider whether to raise rates further when they meet again in September, November and December. Daly before the most recent rate hike had thought a total of two more interest-rate increases would likely be needed before year's end, but she did not reiterate that view on Thursday.
Persons: Mary Daly, Daly, Ann Saphir, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Yahoo Finance, U.S . Labor Department, Fed, Traders, Thomson
A customer looks at the prices at a supermarket in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, May 6, 2016. "Moreover, services and core services indexes also improved... although they will continue to be considerably above the inflation target," the analysts noted. Brazil is enjoying benign food inflation trends resulting from a record-breaking crop that may be repeated next season, provided the country's vast production of grains and oilseeds is spared from the impact of the El Nino climatic pattern. Apart from helping to open a window for much awaited interest rate cuts, stable food prices facilitate President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government initiative to raise fuel taxes again in a bid to strengthen Brazil's public accounts. Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin; Editing by Ross Finley and Jan HarveyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Nacho Doce, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's, Gabriel Burin, Ross Finley, Jan Harvey Organizations: REUTERS, Santander, El, Thomson Locations: Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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